Election Forecasts
Introduction
Scott Armstrong offers US election forecasts using two different non-poll methodologies
As we move into the final days for the election, you might find the forecasts on to be of interest.
Notice the pattern over time exhibited by .
Also, see the "Voter Expectations" predictions (not currently included in the PollyVote). This method is ignored by the mass media. As shown in by Andreas Graefe, it is a most promising method.
Based on the benefits of combining forecasts and conservative methods, and the track record on previous elections, I expect that the final PollyVote will be more accurate than the "actual" results (that is correcting for measurement error caused by inevitable mistakes and cheating).
The PollyVote is updated everyday.
"PollyVote: Less exciting, but more accurate."
-J. Scott Armstrong
Wharton School
JMHH 747
U. of Pennsylvania, Phila., PA 19104
Home Phone 610-622-6480
armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu
homepage:
| The Hardware and Software Behind ELMAR Is Paid for with ÂÜÀòÉç¹ÙÍø Dues Please Support ELMAR by or renewing your membership |