The Illusion of Predictability
Introduction
Scott Armstrong recommends a paper by Soyer and Hogarth (2012) on how regression analysis applied to non-experimental data misleads experts
The Illusion of predictability
Emre Soyer and Robin M. Hogarth’s paper, "", appears in the latest issue of the International Journal of Forecasting. It is an important paper that deals with the widespread misuse of regression analysis when applied to non-experimental data. The article is accompanied by an and (including a reply by Soyer and Hogarth)
-J. Scott Armstrong
Wharton School
JMHH 747
U. of Pennsylvania, Phila., PA 19104
Home Phone 610-622-6480
armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu
homepage:
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