Luck and Outcome Bias
Introduction
Chengwei Liu and Ina Freeman seek participants and collaborators for a cross-cultural on-line behavioral experiment on luck
: : : Posting
Greetings,
We are implementing a cross-cultural behavioral survey on ‘luck’. More specifically, the survey explores the use of counter-factual thinking in the application of luck. We seek your help in collecting data. The survey is conducted through an on-line format. The average completion time is five to ten minutes. All data collected will be used for academic purpose only. If you agree to help, please take the survey using the following link:
The purpose of the current survey is to explore why outcome bias exists through the lens of ‘counterfactual thinking’. Counterfactual thinking is a mental simulation process concerning about events that could have happened but did not. Past research suggests that counterfactual thinking entails important adaptive functions. For example, you may have deep regret for a past failure. By mentally simulating how alternatives to your action could have undone the failure, you could learn your lesson and improve your performance when you encounter a similar situation next time. Past research also suggests certain tendencies exist in people’s counterfactual thinking. The current survey examines whether the tendency of people’s counterfactual thinking is a contributing factor to outcome bias.
If you choose to, we would appreciate your forwarding the same link to your contacts where you consider appropriate (e.g. colleagues, friends or students). There is no specific limitation for our sampling. We will keep all individual responses confidential and your identity will never be disclosed.
If you have any comment on our survey or would like to know more about our research project: ‘The mental simulation process concerning luck and chance successes’, please do hesitate to email me at ina.freeman@gmail.com. Thank you.
Sincerely yours,
Chengwei Liu (PhD candidate, University of Cambridge, UK)
Ina Freeman (Associate Professor, Groupe Sup de Co, La Rochelle, France)