Are Polar Bears in Danger?
Introduction
Senate testimony by Scott Armstrong, Jan. 30, 2008
: : : Posting
: : dialog
Are Polar Bears in danger? Senate testimony by Scott Armstrong, Jan. 30, 2008
Scott Armstrong, Kesten Green and Willie Soon (a physical scientist who has done much research on climate change) audited the forecasting methods used to support the government’s strategy to list polar bears as an endangered species. Conclusion? The forecasts of polar bear populations were not derived from scientific forecasting procedures. As Armstrong stated: "On average, the authors [of the government reports] properly applied only 12% of relevant [scientific forecasting] principles. In what occupations would work that follows 12% of proper procedures be considered acceptable?"
Details, including a video of Scott’s six-minute presentation to the U. S. Senate Hearing on polar bears, and the written transcript of the interesting Q&A between Boxer and Armstrong are available at http://theclimatebet.com
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J. Scott Armstrong
Professor of Marketing, 747 Huntsman, The Wharton School, U. of PA, Phila, PA 19104
home phone 610 622 6480
Home address: 645 Harper Ave., Drexel Hill, PA 19026
Fax at school: 215 898 2534