Endangered Polar Bears?
Introduction
Scott Armstrong, Kesten Green and Willie Soon seek peer reviews of a paper auditing the forecasting methods used by those wanting to categorize polar bears as endangered
: : : Posting
: methods: dialog
"Are polar bears endangered? It is all about the forecasts"
I, along with Kesten Green and Willie Soon, audited the forecasting methods used by the authors of the government’s administrative reports to support their strategy to list polar bears as an endangered species. As it turns out, the forecasts were based primarily judgmental methods. We concluded that the forecasts of polar bear populations were not derived from scientific forecasting procedures. It would be irresponsible to classify polar bears as endangered on the basis of such forecasts. We are seeking additional peer review for our paper
Scott Armstrong
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J. Scott Armstrong
Professor of Marketing, 747 Huntsman, The Wharton School, U. of PA, Phila, PA 19104
http://www.jscottarmstrong.com
home phone 610 622 6480
Home address: 645 Harper Ave., Drexel Hill, PA 19026
Fax at school: 215 898 2534