Scott vs. Al Second Round
Introduction
Further comments, an update and a query from Scott Armstrong on global warming and forecasting
: : : Posting
: : dialog
A new version of the Green and Armstrong paper, "Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts," was posted on August 10 on and at . It has been accepted by the journal Energy and Environment, and is now undergoing further review. We would love to receive peer review – especially from anyone who is convinced long-term forecasts of global warming are valid.
Here is the latest on what people who visit think about global warming. As you will see, there is not the overwhelming consensus that Al Gore talks about:
- From July 17 through July 30, visitors to were invited to predict who would win the Global Warming Challenge that Scott Armstrong has proposed to Al Gore. We told visitors:
Mr. Gore has made his case in his book and movie both titled An Inconvenient Truth. Scott Armstrong’s case is that climate forecasters are unfamiliar with scientific forecasting methods, and their consequent inappropriate use of complex models provides invalid forecasts. Forecasts from climate models are therefore likely to be less accurate that the naïve forecast that global temperatures will not change. The winner of the Global Warming Challenge will be the party with the smallest forecast error over the next 10 years.
And asked them:
- Assume that Al Gore can spare five minutes at some time in the future to accept Scott Armstrong’s Global Warming Challenge. Who do you think would win?
There were 85 respondents from around the world:
- 82% thought Scott Armstrong would win the challenge,
12% believed Al Gore would win, and
6% believed the Challenge was too close to call.
Our paper has been widely covered in blogs, but not much in the mass media (other than on Fox news and The Wall Street Journal in the US, and with TV and radio coverage in Australia). Any suggestions on how we can break into the mass media?
—
J. Scott Armstrong
Professor of Marketing, 747 Huntsman, The Wharton School, U. of PA, Phila, PA 19104
home phone 610 622 6480
Home address: 645 Harper Ave., Drexel Hill, PA 19026
Fax at school: 215 898 2534