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Can Marketing Save Falling University Enrollment Rates?

Can Marketing Save Falling University Enrollment Rates?

Hal Conick

out of state lead

Experts predict that university enrollment numbers will stagnate. Here鈥檚 how marketers are coming to the rescue.

Each new school year, the same boastful platitude rings out across American universities: 鈥淭he largest class ever!鈥 The campus clich茅 may be warranted. In fall 2017, , per the National Center for Education Statistics, which is equivalent to 6.2% of the American population. This was an increase of 5.1 million students from the fall of 2000.

However, the safety in numbers and clich茅s may be in danger. Public and private high school class sizes are stagnating, leaving university enrollment poised to drop. 

Amir Rasool, managing content director of higher education at Hanover Research, says enrollment numbers are predicted to be flat or decreasing over the next 15 years, save for an uptick in 2023. And universities can鈥檛 only worry about the future: Estimates from Research Center show that enrollment was down 1.5% from spring 2016 to spring 2017 at U.S. institutions. When pulling back to 2015, nationwide enrollment is down 2.9%鈥攁 loss of more than 500,000 students.   

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鈥淲e typically find that when the economy is faring poorly, enrollments go up,鈥 Rasool says. 鈥淲e saw this most recently in response to the 2008 recession. Conversely, when the economy is thriving and jobs are more plentiful, enrollments tend to fall.鈥

Each region will feel the enrollment drop differently as student populations change, Rasool says. For example, the Northeast and Midwest will likely see drops in enrollment, while the South and West may see increases. The Northeast, he says, may be most affected because of its greater concentration of higher-education institutions and a projected drop in student population. National predictions don鈥檛 tell the whole story; each university needs to do its own math on how to fill seats. 

How universities will solve that math will differ by institution. Hanover Research鈥檚 2017 Industry Trend Report for Higher Education found that universities will attempt to redress the enrollment problem through tuition fee review and discounting, reviewing the university鈥檚 portfolio and recruiting out-of-state students. That third option appears to be the de facto formula for many universities.  

Schools winning over out-of-state students is a popular option because it鈥檚 the easiest way to address the enrollment鈥攁nd therefore revenue鈥攃risis. Each year students pay billions of dollars in tuition, and universities can鈥檛 afford to lose that revenue, especially as threats of diminished education funding loom at both state and federal levels. If tuition isn鈥檛 the raison d鈥櫭猼re of a university鈥檚 business, it鈥檚 close. 

David Burge, George Mason University鈥檚 vice president for enrollment management, says private universities have regarded enrollment numbers as dollar signs for years, but the notion is a recent revelation鈥攑erhaps 10 to 15 years old鈥攆or public institutions. Winning new students is now 鈥渃ore to the work鈥 of all universities, Burge says. 

This renewed focus on enrollment falls heavily on the shoulders of university advertising and marketing departments. The proof is in the ballooning budgets: A report from Educational Marketing Group and Kantar Media found that advertising spending at universities grew 22% from 2013 to 2016. However, as Rob Zinkan, associate vice president of marketing at Indiana University, wrote in a piece for Inside Higher Ed, . 

Instead of using blunt-force spending, university marketers must use guile, creativity and a bevy of marketing tools. Here鈥檚 what some successful university marketers have done to keep enrollment high. 

Know Your Geography

Before marketers reach out to students on the other side of the country, universities should be sure they have a need unmet in their own backyard. For example, Zinkan is still able to comfortably lean on bromides, saying that Indiana University Bloomington has a 鈥渞ecord-setting class鈥 of incoming students, 70% of whom are from Indiana. While this doesn鈥檛 mean Indiana can stop worrying about its enrollment rates, Zinkan says the numbers have allowed the university to divvy up its marketing budget 鈥渇airly evenly鈥 between in-state and out-of-state students.

Despite the national trends, George Mason鈥檚 Burge says his university has seen an uptick of high school graduates in parts of Virginia. However, the university is forecasting a 鈥渟ubstantial decline鈥 of students within 10 to 15 years. This decline shows why each university must understand its own market, Burge says, as a local enrollment rate may be high this year and desiccated the next. 

Data and Measurement 

The University of Alabama is one of the success stories of out-of-state student recruiting. In the past decade, Alabama鈥檚 attention to data seems to have paid off: In fall 2006, 15,761 students applied to Alabama; in fall 2017, there were 43,693 applications, a 177.2% increase. Approximately 5,000 students from this year鈥檚 freshmen class of 7,407 were from outside of Alabama, says Linda Bonnin, vice president of the University of Alabama鈥檚 Division of Strategic Communications, who joined Alabama in 2015.

 Data and measurement have played big roles, Bonnin says. 萝莉社官网t 15 years ago, Alabama executives noticed a decreasing number of in-state students and started digging into the data. What the school found was clear: If the school was to create a sustainable model, officials needed to aggressively recruit out-of-state students.   

鈥淲e know exactly how we can drill down to high schools and determine what the plausibility is of students from that high school choosing the University of Alabama,鈥 Bonnin says. 鈥淚t can get quite specific in the data. And to me, that鈥檚 what鈥檚 exciting. It鈥檚 not a guessing game. You can determine that you know the viability of being successful with a particular market.鈥

At George Mason University, Burge says data and segmentation have played a similar role in building 鈥渢he largest freshman class鈥 ever this year. Approximately a quarter of the new class, 753 students, were from outside of Virginia in 2017, up from 626 out-of-state students in 2013. 

鈥淲e expanded our marketing operational capacity to allow us to segment communications and we thought critically about how we identify students in the college selection process,鈥 Burge says. Data is especially important for George Mason, as the school has a growth aspiration of 100,000 career-ready graduates over a 10-year-period. Burge says the school uses metrics to review potential student conversion from lead to application, application to admission offer and admission offer to attendance. 

鈥淲e begin each year with very specific targets of new student enrollment, which we have arrived at through a backwards calculation of the number of graduates that we want to achieve over time,鈥 Burge says. 鈥淲e then break that down by market.鈥

By this point, Burge鈥檚 team can figure out which students should come from Virginia and how many students need to be recruited elsewhere. 

Arriving in the Digital Age 

Before Bonnin arrived at the University of Alabama in 2015, the school was 鈥渘ot in the digital age.鈥 This had to change, she says, as digital marketing is essential to win over the generation aptly referred to by some as the iGeneration. 鈥淭hey have everything in the palm of their hand, so the more you can put in the palm of their hand the better,鈥 she says.

Now, Alabama has joined the digital age, and digital marketing is the most impactful piece of Alabama鈥檚 marketing plan, giving the school a tool that is both effective and inexpensive, Bonnin says. Alabama has tried social media ads, geotargeting, retargeting, rooftop targeting, geofencing and 鈥渆very other kind of targeting you can think of,鈥 Bonnin says. These tools can track ROI to show universities what is working and what to scrap.  

鈥淵ou can adjust it as you need to, based on what you鈥檙e learning from the metrics,鈥 Bonnin says. 

Adding a Personal Touch

No matter how important digital marketing is, students won鈥檛 be won over by e-mail and retargeting alone. A personal touch is needed, Bonnin says, and Alabama reaches out with receptions held across the country. These personal touches need to be 鈥50-50鈥 with digital marketing, she says, lest the digital effort be wasted.  

The personal touch has become nearly inseparable from digital marketing; Bonnin says Alabama recruiting events surge in attendance鈥攁nywhere from 30% to 200%鈥攚hen they鈥檙e bolstered by targeted digital marketing. 

Recruiters Across the Country

Just as Alabama鈥檚 football coaches recruit the best athletes from across the country, the university鈥檚 enrollment and marketing departments recruit the best academic students from across the country. Like many U.S. universities, Alabama has recruiters stationed in multiple states. Their job: convince America鈥檚 brightest students to come to campus for a tour.

鈥淲e have a very organized, strategic and focused effort to recruit out-of-state students,鈥 Bonnin says. 鈥淭his is from the top-down, all the way to recruiters on the ground. Everybody on our campus recognizes the importance of recruiting students. We don鈥檛 want to lose one single student to another university, so all our efforts reflect that commitment to recruitment. We go after the best students in every market.鈥

Bonnin won鈥檛 comment on how many recruiters the university employs, but says they鈥檙e in every U.S. state, with multiple recruiters in Alabama. Each recruiter has a set number of students they鈥檙e expected to recruit, with the data-determined goals varying across the country. 

George Mason鈥檚 recruiting arm isn鈥檛 on the same scale as Alabama, Burge says, but the university does place recruiters in regions of the country where they鈥檝e found potential for enrollment growth, including Texas, California and the Southeast region. 

Although recruiting works for George Mason, Burge says it must be done alongside other key investments to successfully develop a new market. University officials must ask themselves questions such as, 鈥淎re we buying ACT and SAT names in greater numbers from this area?鈥 and 鈥淎m I investing in the right messaging?鈥 to have a successful recruiting program. Plunking a recruiter with vague goals into the middle of America reduces a program鈥檚 chance of success. 

There can be a downside to out-of-state recruitment. 鈥淪ome state institutions are experiencing a negative public reaction from in-state students and their families,” says Rasool. “These groups feel that their tax dollars are helping to fund in-state universities, and therefore they (or their children) should get priority admission. Additionally, some states (North Carolina, for example) have laws capping the number of out-of-state students a public university can admit, and institutions risk losing state funding if they exceed that number.鈥

Having a Consistent Message

The digital marketing, the data research, the recruiters鈥攁ll go to waste without a consistent, central message. 

鈥淚t鈥檚 essential,鈥 says Burge, who adds that his position鈥攙ice president for enrollment management鈥攚as created to work toward better recruiting and a unified message. 鈥淵ou need to have a smart and thoughtful process to develop the right lead marketing messages,鈥 Burge says. 

Put differently: Your talking points can be amazing, but they won鈥檛 do anything if they aren鈥檛 thoughtfully crafted for each market. Good, unique messages must be delivered to different markets, but the messages must be on brand. 鈥淏oth have to be in place for success,鈥 Burge says of good messages and good strategy. 鈥淵ou can鈥檛 be successful without them. Period.鈥

Word of Mouth and Authentic Branding

States like Alabama, Virginia and Indiana may not sound like magnets for young people, but branding and word of mouth can do yeoman鈥檚 work in spreading a university鈥檚 message. For example, many Alabama students come from the Northeast and the West Coast, Bonnin says, two regions rife with prestigious universities. No matter; Alabama students, alumni and parents move back to these regions and hype potential students with stories of their college glory days. 鈥淚t just begins to spread,鈥 Bonnin says. 

Word of mouth comes easily to universities that are authentic in their messaging and actions. Whether students visit for a campus tour or consider enrolling in classes, their impression of the university must match the messages preached during the marketing campaign. 

鈥淵ou shouldn鈥檛 go into a market trying to be something that you鈥檙e not, changing your message from place to place,鈥 Bonnin says. 鈥淛ust own who you are. Make everything that you do authentic.鈥

George Mason doesn鈥檛 have the same coast-to-coast name recognition as Alabama; the farther potential students live from George Mason鈥檚 Virginia campus, the harder it becomes to deliver the brand鈥檚 message. George Mason鈥檚 staff must work harder to get a potential student鈥檚 attention, keep their attention and inspire them to apply and enroll. 

Less-recognizable schools must take an authentic assessment of themselves to create branding that draws students鈥 attention, Burge says. In George Mason鈥檚 case, this may be reminding potential students from California or Texas about the university鈥檚 proximity to Washington, D.C. 

鈥淲e remind them [by saying], 鈥楬ere鈥檚 how that proximity improves your college experience,鈥 Burge says. 鈥淓ach institution [needs to] have something like that.鈥

Bright Lights, Big Reach

Alabama鈥檚 football team has given alumni and students plenty of reason to yell 鈥淩oll Tide鈥濃攖he school鈥檚 rallying cry鈥攁s the team has rarely lost a game over the past few years. Bonnin is right there yelling with them, as Alabama鈥檚 athletic success has helped her spread the university鈥檚 message. In December 2015, for example, Alabama was playing against Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl, giving Bonnin a chance to demonstrate the power of digital.

鈥淭he excitement was peaking and the football team was there for the game, so we went into both markets with a strong digital presence,鈥 she says. 鈥淲e began to carry our messages to prospective high school students and their parents. It was really effective for us.鈥

While sports can mesmerize prospective students, Bonnin says athletics should only be a piece of the wooing process. 鈥淚t gets a lot of attention at certain times of the year, but we also want them to understand the academic quality of the institution,鈥 Bonnin says. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 a message that we drive pretty consistently across the country.鈥

Even so, the hollering of University of Alabama鈥檚 rallying cry is likely a draw for students across America who see the excitable crowds, convivial atmosphere and thrilling games. More than 25 million viewers watched the Alabama Crimson Tide defeat the Clemson Tigers in the 2016 National Championship game. You can鈥檛 buy that kind of reach.  

Remember Your Mission

Universities can recruit new students from across America to bolster their enrollment numbers, but Burge says university officials must remember their school鈥檚 core mission and values. 

For example, two of George Mason鈥檚 core values are diversity and accessibility, which Burge says dovetail with producing great outcomes for graduates. This means George Mason officials look for 鈥渢he right applicants 鈥 for the long-term growth of the institution鈥 as it pertains to the university鈥檚 mission. 

鈥淚 counsel anybody engaged in this work to think critically about who they are and who they set up camp with to help them achieve this goal,鈥 Burge says. 鈥淎nd to remain true to their mission.鈥

Part of George Mason鈥檚 mission is targeting the neediest students鈥攅specially from Virginia鈥攁nd offering them merit scholarships. When the scholarships aren鈥檛 available, Burge says there鈥檚 an ethical question of whether a student can afford a four-year degree, which is $34,370 per year for out-of-state students as of 2017-2018. Telling students the truth about money is important, so students don鈥檛 feel like they鈥檝e been bamboozled, Burge says.  

鈥攖o 鈥渁dvance the intellectual and social condition of the people of the state, the nation and the world through the creation, translation and dissemination of knowledge鈥濃攁lso shines a light on how the bulk of the school鈥檚 scholarships and discounted tuition are allotted: to students with high academic achievement. Bonnin says more than 40% of this year鈥檚 freshman class scored 30 or higher on their ACT (on a scale of 36). In addition, 30.8% of this year鈥檚 freshman were in the top 10% of their graduating high school class.

鈥淲e definitely want the best and brightest students here because they have better chances of being successful,鈥 Bonnin says. 

Celebrations are Temporary

University marketers can celebrate, but they can鈥檛 forget the work ahead, Burge says. He and his team had a temporary celebration after learning this year鈥檚 incoming class was the school鈥檚 largest ever, but he says no marketing professionals can rest on their prior successes. 

鈥淟ast year, I gathered everybody together and we celebrated the numbers,鈥 Burge says. 鈥淚 said, 鈥榃e should all feel really good about what you did. Now let鈥檚 go do it again.鈥 That鈥檚 the nature of enrollment. It has a very clear beginning and end.鈥 鈥

Hal Conick is a freelance writer for the 萝莉社官网鈥檚 magazines and e-newsletters. He can be reached at halconick@gmail.com or on Twitter at @HalConick.